Jun 10, 2009

Honduras vs El Salvador today, a critical soccer game

Tonight we will have the soccer game Honduras vs El Salvador, the game will begin 7:30pm Honduras time. By that time, Honduras will be completely paralyzed, everybody will be watching this game.

The same thing will happen in El Salvador, everybody will be watching in El Salvador as well. Both countries are seriously impacted by soccer games when the national team is playing.

There is a critical factor with today's game, it's not an usual match. No, this game in particular is a key game in order to maintain aspirations for going to the World Cup in South Africa next year.

As of today and before this game, let´s remember that El Salvador is currently 3rd in the standings with 5 points, and Honduras is currently 4th with 4 points. There are 3 tickets in Concacaf for going to the World Cup. If the qualifying round was over right now, the teams with the tickets would be Costa Rica, USA and El Salvador.

However, the qualifyng round is not over yet. Tonight we will complete 5 games out of 10 which is the total. After tonight´s game, we will be in the very middle of this qualifying round.

Chances are that the standings in this middle of the qualifying round are the same standings we will have after all 10 qualifyng games are over. Those are the probabilities and statistics.

If Honduras wins tonight's game, we will have 7 points and will get the 3rd place. Honduras has no other choice but winning, a draw would be devastating for Honduras aspirations. Honduras will be playing as the local team, and must win each and every game as the local team, no draws, that's the key for qualifying to the World Cup.

On the other hand, El Salvador would be glad to get a draw in this match. It´s always very difficult playing as a visitor. If they get a draw, they would get to 6 points, and hopefully would keep that 3rd place. However, this depends also on Mexico's result tonight vs Trinidad Tobago.

We can not forget that Mexico will be playing tonight as well, they will be playing in the Azteca Stadium, and they have 99.99% probabilities of beating Trinidad Tobago, and they will go up to 6 points in the standings. If they score a lot of goals against Trinidad, and El Salvador gets the draw against Honduras, both teams would be 3rd with 6 points, but the goal difference would probably be in favor of Mexico.

However, I still will have to review the rules of this competition about 2 teams getting in the same position. What is the criteria for defining who goes first than the other in case of having the same points?. I believe there is a rule saying that if 2 teams are tied in their points, the first criteria in order to define who goes first is the direct result between those 2 teams.

In this case, the direct result between El Salvador and Mexico is in favor of El Salvador, since they beat Mexico 2-1 a few days ago. I´m almost sure that this is the rule, I will have to check on that though.

As for Honduras, there is no other choice but winning as we said before. This game vs El Salvador will be like the final and definite game for Honduras, and this is the way to face all remaining games with the other teams. Honduras must face each game like a final game.

The game will be played in San Pedro Sula, the Olympic Stadium will gather 50,000 fans, most of them cheering for Honduras. Several thousands fans from El Salvador have arrived to San Pedro Sula in the last couple of days, and many of them will be in the stadium cheering for El Salvador.

People in El Salvador is very optimistic about their national team. According to them, if they beat Mexico they can beat anybody, and Honduras is their next victim tonight.

I believe Honduras will win, and we better win, we have no choice. We have to impose our local condition. So far, Honduras has won each and every game playing as local team. Hopefully tonight we can impose again our local condition.

There are no other important news today in Honduras and El Salvador because of tonight's game. No politics, no crime, no economics, nothing. Can you imagine that?. This soccer game is serious stuff.

I don´t know if this excessive passion for soccer is good or bad, but that´s the reality here and we will have to go along with it, let's go with the flow.

2 comments - Leave a comment:

Anonymous said...

can you view the game in the united states?

CJ said...

I'm not sure if this particular game was broadcasted in the US. I know Telemundo, Univision, ESPN sometimes transmit these games, but not always.
Some people is able to watch the games in USA via Internet, not sure how they do it

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